"100% that Connor McDavid re-signs with Edmonton Oilers": credible NHL insider predicts (2024)

This in from NHL insider Frank Seravalli of The Daily Face-off his prediction that it’s a certainly Connor McDavid will sign a new contract with the Edmonton Oilers next summer.

McDavid has two years left on his $12.5 million per year deal, but can re-up in Edmonton as early as July 1, 2025.

“It’s now a 100 per cent shot that Connor McDavid re-signs with the Edmonton Oilers,” Servalli said to Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now. “Because there is no chance that he’s leaving. I didn’t think there was to begin with. And certainly not now with Leon Draisaitl looked up for the long term…. There’s no way that Leon is signing if there is a chance that Connor is not.”

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Folks in Toronto asked him why Edmonton would be able to retain Draisaitl, Servalli said.

His answer?

“Why not the Edmonton Oilers? It’s a franchise steeped in history, a premier place to play, players are treated like princes, and they’ve got some of the best support in the league, bar none, and, oh yeah, by the way they’ve come as close as any team has ever come to winning the Stanley Cup and not getting the job done, Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final… This is exactly what you’re looking for if you’re a player. You can’t ask for anything more.”

My take

1. Seravalli’s credibility when it comes to predictions is at an all-time high in Edmonton just now. A year ago, as many worried that Leon Draisaitl and McDavid might not stay with the Oilers, Seravalli said there’s a 90 per cent chance that the Oilers would bring back both Draisaitl and McDavid on new contracts. Draisaitl signed a new eight-year deal today.

At that time, Seravalli said McDavid and Draisaitl are tight, and Edmonton is the best place for them to play together. “Anyone (in the NHL) would move heaven and earth to get one of them, but how many places could they both do it together? One of them will be able to go somewhere else, or both of them will be able to go to separate places, but where can both of them go at the same time and not have to start all over again?”

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It’s not a hard sell to get players to come to Edmonton, Seravalli said at the time, as the Oilers are now one of the five or six authentic Stanley Cup contenders year in, year out.

Seravalli said Oilers owner Daryl Katz had transformed the city, alluding to the new downtown arena district. “I used to go to Edmonton 15 years ago and I know how much different it is now compared to then… It’s the chance to win that’s sucking people in. That punches above its weight class when it comes to all the other things that some may or may not view as negatives, cold, dark, whatever it might be.”

2. More recently in mid-June Seravalli made another bold prediction, and the first part has come to pass with Draisaitl signing with a $14 million per year cap hit.

In this recent prediction, Seravalli said the Oilers would sign McDavid on a new deal for $16 million per, Draisaitl for $14 million per and Bouchard for $10 million per. “That’s my projection. And if the Oilers are sitting in their office with (hockey boss) Jeff Jackson’s big board that he has up there, I think the numbers are really close to that. The cap is also going to be $100 million then.”

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3. Of course, McDavid is his own person. He thinks for himself. He’ll make his own decisions. No one can read his mind. But he’s given every indication he’s locked into this team.

4. It was evident that the 1980s Oilers would likely have stayed together in Edmonton if owner Peter Pocklington didn’t need money from selling them off and if he could have paid them market rate. The bonds of that team were so tight that they likely would have bound the players to themselves and to this city through the 1990s and likely won three or four more Cups together. That was not to be, but Katz has the money to pay market rate, and this new team led by McDavid, Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and others is also impressively tight. It is indeed hard to imagine they won’t stay together in pursuit of riches and glory.

Staples on politics

Premier Smith doubles down on bid to end AHS near monopoly on running hospitals

At the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Hockey world reacts to new Draisaitl deal

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STAPLES: “It was weird the way they handled it”: Dylan Holloway criticizes Edmonton Oilers negotiating tactics. Hmm

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