Bonds Have Been Awful. It’s a Good Time to Buy. (2024)

FAQs

Bonds Have Been Awful. It’s a Good Time to Buy.? ›

“Time to Buy Bonds” proclaims the cover of this week's Barron's. A recent New York Times headline reads, “Bonds Have Been Awful. It's a Good Time to Buy.” The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard chimes in, “This looks like the perfect entry point.” That may very well prove to be excellent advice.

Answer: Now may be the perfect time to invest in bonds. Yields are at levels you could only dream of 15 years ago, so you'd be locking in substantial, regular income. And, of course, bonds act as a diversifier to your stock portfolio.

Many yield curve pairs using various maturities have been inverted since late 2022. This is due in large part to the Fed's rate hikes, which have the greatest direct impact on short-term bond yields. Source: U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of May 3, 2024.

Positive Signals for Future Returns. At the beginning of 2024, bond yields, the rate of return they generate for investors, were near post-financial crisis highs¹—and for fixed-income, yields have historically served as a good proxy for future returns.

Bonds could return as much as stocks, with far less volatility. Note: The projections use the MSCI U.S. Broad Market Index as a proxy for stocks and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index as a proxy for bonds. Source: Vanguard Capital Markets Model projections, as of December 31, 2023.

2024 Bond Outlook at a Glance

Right now, the market and the Fed have differing expectations, which is creating volatility around every major economic data release.” In a recent report, Vanguard indicated that it expects U.S. bonds to return a nominal annualized 4.8% to 5.8% over the next decade.

Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.

Certain bond types that trade in more liquid markets—such as Treasurys and certain corporate bonds—may be easier to sell than most municipal bonds, where markets are thinner and less liquid. Selling before maturity can result in either a profit or a loss compared with the price you paid at purchase.

After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.

Should you buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›

Key Takeaways. Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.

Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.

The top picks for 2024, chosen for their stability, income potential and expert management, include Dodge & Cox Income Fund (DODIX), iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), Pimco Long Duration Total Return (PLRIX), and American Funds Bond Fund of America (ABNFX).

Risks of bonds

If the issuer defaults, the bonds could become worthless. Market value can decline, sometimes significantly if interest rates rise above the coupon rate of the bond.

In a recession, investors often turn to bonds, particularly government bonds, as safer investments. The shift from stocks to bonds can increase bond prices, reduce portfolio volatility, and provide a predictable income. However, drawbacks include lower yield potential, default risks, and interest rate risks.

Key Takeaways

Bond rates are lower over time than the general return of the stock market. Individual stocks may outperform bonds by a significant margin, but they are also at a much higher risk of loss. Bonds will always be less volatile on average than stocks because more is known and certain about their income flow.

It's a 'better bet' to buy I bonds now

If you buy I bonds now, you'll receive 5.27% annual interest for six months and the new May rate for the following six months. He suggests buying a few days before April 30.

In current market circ*mstances, with higher bond yields, fixed income investments have become an attractive asset class again from a risk-return perspective. Apart from the attractive yield, bonds also offer resilience for adverse market developments in risk assets like equities.

During a bear market environment, bonds are typically viewed as safe investments. That's because when stock prices fall, bond prices tend to rise. When a bear market goes hand in hand with a recession, it's typical to see bond prices increasing and yields falling just before the recession reaches its deepest point.

Why interest rates affect bonds. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.